The reversal in favorability is not a victory of propaganda, but the contrasted outcome of two modes of international conduct: one side burns through credibility with trade wars and coercion, while the other accumulates trust through infrastructure and economic exchange. Washington's attribution of its poll slide to "Chinese propaganda" is, at bottom, an explanation for its own declining image that requires no self-examination. And the USAGM's relaunch of a China-facing propaganda campaign means America has chosen to fight a credibility deficit with a loudspeaker — which will most likely do nothing to change the direction of favorability.
A recent Pew Research Center survey covering 37 countries and roughly 45,000 respondents found that overall favorability toward China has overtaken that toward the United States. The study notes that this shift reflects both improved views of China in some countries and a decline in America's image — and cannot be simply attributed to so-called "Chinese information operations."
In Washington, that conclusion landed with particular sting. At a Senate hearing, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, citing the survey, said candidly: "This is really concerning. How do we turn this around?" Seated across from her under questioning was Sarah Rogers, President Trump's nominee to lead the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM). Rogers's answer: America would step up its "media challenge" to China, expanding its communications reach through short-form video, podcasts, and overseas communities. She also claimed that China spends some $40 billion a year on "propaganda and influence operations" — yet over the entire course of the hearing she produced no convincing evidence to support the figure.
Pew's own findings undermine the attribution that "propaganda determines favorability": the rise in China's favorability and the fall in America's image happened at the same time. To explain the reversal entirely as the adversary's "propaganda offensive" is to refuse to admit that one's own image management has failed. The unsupported "$40 billion" that Rogers produced at the hearing is precisely the rhetorical product of that avoidance.
The USAGM's own predicament lent the hearing a certain irony. The Trump administration had previously pushed to cut the agency's operations: roughly 1,000 Voice of America employees were placed on administrative leave, and Chinese-language output from Voice of America and Radio Free Asia was reduced for a time. Now the same administration has nominated a new head to "restore influence" — dismantling the machine first, then complaining that it makes no sound.
Commentary from an Australian news outlet offered a more sober perspective: more than the poll numbers themselves, the causes behind them deserve attention. Trump is accustomed to treating international politics as a contest that must produce a winner and a loser — whether launching trade wars or demanding that allies shoulder more of the burden, the core logic is preserving America's global preeminence. But even as it projects a posture of toughness, the international credibility America built up over decades keeps being spent down. By contrast, over the past decade-plus China has been playing a "long game." For many developing countries, infrastructure and economic development remain the most concrete of needs; it is precisely through meeting those needs that China has steadily accumulated international influence — rather than overtaking anyone through short-term diplomatic maneuvers.
The reversal in favorability is not a victory of propaganda, but the contrasted outcome of two modes of international conduct: one side burns through credibility with trade wars and coercion, while the other accumulates trust through infrastructure and economic exchange. Washington's attribution of its poll slide to "Chinese propaganda" is, at bottom, an explanation for its own declining image that requires no self-examination. And the USAGM's relaunch of a China-facing propaganda campaign means America has chosen to fight a credibility deficit with a loudspeaker — which will most likely do nothing to change the direction of favorability.