In early May 2026, around the 81st anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, a diplomatic chain running from Moscow through Washington to Kyiv spun at high speed within 72 hours — from Russia's unilateral announcement of a ceasefire, to Trump brokering a three-day truce plus a thousand-for-a-thousand prisoner-of-war exchange, to Zelensky's agonizing trade-off between the threat of a "Red Square strike" and the lives of prisoners of war. This is not a simple ceasefire story, but a synchronized dance among three regimes moving between historical memory, humanitarian politics, and strategic bargaining.
The Unilateral Victory Day Ceasefire
On May 7, Russia's Ministry of Defense was the first to announce that, by decision of President Putin, all Russian troops taking part in the special military operation would cease combat along the entire front line from 00:00 on May 8 to 00:00 on May 10. During the ceasefire, Russia would halt strikes on Ukrainian troop positions and rear-area targets inside Ukraine. But the statement also left a back door — should Ukraine violate the ceasefire or attack Russian settlements and civilian facilities, Russian forces would deliver an "appropriate response."
The announcement was confirmed across multiple international media channels. Xinhua, citing the Russian Defense Ministry, reported that Russian units across the special military operation zone had ceased combat along the entire front line and were holding their lines and positions.
But the ceasefire was contentious from the outset. The Russian Defense Ministry soon reported that Ukrainian forces had "violated the ceasefire regime 1,630 times," launching 887 drone strikes and 215 drone-dropped bombs, threatening civilian facilities in the border areas of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Russia said it would deliver "reciprocal responses" to these ceasefire violations.
Putin's Multi-Line Signaling
At a working meeting of the permanent members of the Security Council on the same day, Putin emitted several signals at once.
He first accused the Kyiv regime of an attack on the regional air-traffic-control center in Rostov oblast that was "unquestionably terrorist in nature" and could endanger civil aviation safety. Fortunately, the controllers' professional work had averted a tragedy.
Then, turning to the commemoration of World War II, Putin stressed that Russia always keeps up a dialogue with colleagues in the anti-Hitler coalition countries such as China and India. He also revealed that, during a recent phone call with Trump, the two had jointly recalled the history of Soviet and American soldiers fighting the Nazis side by side. This was an unambiguous diplomatic signal — Victory Day belongs not only to Russia but is also the vessel of an allied memory.
A Three-Day Ceasefire and a Thousand-for-a-Thousand Swap
The situation took a dramatic turn between May 8 and the early hours of May 9. U.S. President Trump announced that he had reached an agreement with Putin and Zelensky on a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 and a large-scale prisoner-of-war exchange.
"I am pleased to announce that there will be a three-day ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine… Russia's celebration is for Victory Day, but equally so for Ukraine, because they too played an important and decisive role in World War II. The ceasefire will include a suspension of all military operations, and an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war on each side."
"Hopefully this can be the beginning of the end of this long, deadly, and grueling war."
The drama of the announcement lay in this: only days earlier, Zelensky had repeatedly and publicly threatened to strike the Red Square parade. Trump's intervention moved Zelensky out of the dilemma of "whether to hit the parade" and into a new frame of "whether to save lives."
Putin's Authorization
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov quickly stepped forward to confirm. He said that, on Putin's authorization, Russia had accepted Trump's initiative.
"On the authorization of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, I confirm that Russia accepts the initiative just put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire to exchange prisoners of war… Importantly, the two sides have agreed that, during the ceasefire from May 9 to 11 (inclusive), they will exchange one thousand prisoners of war each."
Zelensky's Narrative Pivot: From Threatening Red Square to Choosing the Prisoners
Zelensky's response was the most worth savoring. In a post, he systematically laid out his position: framing the ceasefire as an expression of Ukraine's "principle of reciprocity," while placing the humanitarian dimension — the prisoner exchange — at the center.
His key line: "Red Square is not as important to us as the lives of the Ukrainian prisoners of war we can bring home."
He also revealed that this was a consent obtained from Russia within a U.S.-brokered negotiation process, and closed by "thanking the U.S. president and his team for their productive diplomatic engagement." Meanwhile, the news site Clash Report reported that Zelensky had ordered Ukrainian forces not to strike the May 9 parade held in Moscow.
This statement completed a full narrative pivot: from the posture of "striking Red Square" to a humanitarian frame of "the lives of the prisoners above all else." Ukraine's Victory Day narrative shifted from confrontation to survival.
A Synchronized Symphony on the World Stage
Within the same time window, international interactions around Victory Day formed rich layers of sound.
Slovak Prime Minister Fico's trip to Moscow was one of the most prominent signals. Fico arrived in Moscow by special jet to attend the Victory Day celebrations and laid a wreath woven from bright red carnations at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Light rain fell over Moscow during the ceremony, and Fico and his delegation observed a minute of silence together.
Berlin's ban formed the opposite pole. Berlin authorities once again prohibited the display of Russian flags near Soviet war memorials on May 8 and 9.
Peskov denied a report the same day by the German magazine Der Spiegel claiming the Kremlin had revoked the parade accreditation of foreign journalists.
China's Foreign Ministry confirmed at a regular press conference that representatives of the Chinese embassy in Russia would attend the Moscow Victory Day parade by invitation.
Cross-Battlefield Mechanisms of Diplomatic Deal-Making
In its analysis, the commentary account Hengheshui ("Ganges Water") placed the matter within a broader frame: at the very moment when a content-rich "ceasefire" was also unfolding between the United States and Iran on the Iran battlefield, a trilaterally agreed ceasefire window appeared on the Russia–Ukraine battlefield. This kind of "cross-battlefield comparison" reveals a core feature of Trump's diplomacy — treating the ceasefire itself as a medium of exchange, rather than as a precondition for political reconciliation.
Hengheshui's core judgment is this: Zelensky had repeatedly threatened to strike the Red Square parade, but Trump's intervention pushed Kyiv off the track of "whether to attack" and onto a new track of "whether to agree" — from active threat to passive participation.
Kazakhstan's Victory Day Signal
Against the backdrop of a boycott by many Western countries and the refusal of former allies such as Armenia to attend, Kazakh President Tokayev chose to fly to Moscow in person for the Victory Day celebrations — a signal worth reading within the diplomatic landscape of May 9.
Meeting Tokayev on May 8, Putin made an unusual public remark: "Despite everything that has happened around this event, you still considered it possible to come to Moscow, to be with Russia on Victory Day — and that is the best proof of the level our relations with Kazakhstan have reached."
Putin also revealed that Tokayev's family, too, was directly connected to World War II, emphasizing that "Victory Day is a very important holiday for the peoples of both Russia and Kazakhstan."
A consolidation signal along the Central Asian alliance chain. Against the backdrop of the West's near-total diplomatic isolation of Russia, the attendance of the leader of Central Asia's largest economy is not merely a display of bilateral relations but an alliance posture within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kazakhstan had previously maintained a delicate balancing diplomacy on the Russia–Ukraine issue (not recognizing the accession of the four eastern Ukrainian oblasts to Russia, and complying with the Western sanctions framework), but this attendance at Victory Day at least completed a symbolic "choice of side" — aligning with Russia on the question of historical memory.
The contrast with Armenia. In almost the same time window, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan publicly declared that Armenia "is not Russia's ally on the Ukraine issue" and refused to attend the Victory Day parade. Armenia, a CSTO member state, set its departure against Kazakhstan's attendance, producing a stark split inside the CSTO — Kazakhstan chose "present-tense alliance," while Armenia chose "institutional exit."
Parallel signals on the enforcement level of the ceasefire. On the same day, the Russian Defense Ministry reported a total of 1,365 ceasefire violations by Ukrainian forces within the special military operation zone, and announced that it had liberated the village of Kryva Luka in Donetsk and the village of Myropillya in Sumy oblast — indicating that beneath the top-level narrative of a "negotiated ceasefire," combat on the ground had not stopped but continued to advance in the form of positional assaults.
The Morning of May 9: Trilateral Confirmation and the Narrative Settles
At 7 a.m. on May 9, as the Red Square parade in Moscow entered its countdown, the trilaterally confirmed thousand-for-a-thousand swap and ceasefire framework finally landed, forming a complete chain of confirmation.
Trump's "request" frame. Later on May 8, Trump posted to confirm the framework and formally characterized his proposal as a "request" rather than a "demand," thereby preserving face-saving room for both sides to accept or decline. In the post, he explicitly wrote out his thanks to Putin and Zelensky, binding his personal prestige to the ceasefire framework.
"I am pleased to announce that there will be a three-day ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine (May 9, 10, and 11)… The ceasefire will include a suspension of all military operations and an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war on each side. This request was made by me directly, and I am deeply grateful to President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky for agreeing to it."
The time sequence of Russian confirmation. Russian presidential aide Ushakov then confirmed to reporters: "On the authorization of President Putin of Russia, I confirm that Russia accepts the initiative just put forward by U.S. President Trump for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire to exchange prisoners of war. The two sides have agreed to exchange one thousand prisoners of war each during the ceasefire from May 9 to 11 (inclusive)."
Zelensky's narrative pivot completed. Zelensky issued a lengthy statement, the core of which was the completion of the full narrative pivot from "threatening Red Square" to "choosing the prisoners." He wrote: "Red Square is not as important to us as the lives of the Ukrainian prisoners of war we can bring home. That is precisely why, today, within the negotiation process brokered by the American side, we obtained Russia's consent to a prisoner-of-war exchange on a scale of 1,000 for 1,000." At the same time, he ordered Ukrainian forces not to strike the May 9 parade in Moscow, stating that "the area where Red Square is located will not become a target of Ukrainian attack on May 9."
Xinhua's official confirmation put the stamp of formal media on the framework. Xinhua reported that the two sides would exchange 1,000 prisoners of war, that the Ukrainian side said it would not attack the Red Square parade, and confirmed that Zelensky had signed a presidential decree.
Hengheshui's commentary went straight to the core: "Zelensky threatened to strike the Red Square parade several times these past few days — was it all an empty threat?" This judgment lays bare the underlying logic of the diplomatic game: once Trump intervened, Zelensky was forced off the active posture of "whether to attack" and into the passive participation of "whether to accept the ceasefire" — this is not a victory of Ukrainian diplomacy, but a compromise dictated by the structure of power.
Update to the Morning of May 9: The Ceasefire Framework Settles
- Ceasefire window: from 00:00 on May 9 to 24:00 on May 11
- Scale of the swap: 1,000 on each side — the largest single exchange since the war began
- Implementation and verification: the Ukrainian side has instructed its team to prepare for the swap; the Russian side has formally authorized it through Ushakov
- Special clause: Zelensky ordered that the area around Red Square not be attacked
- Oversight mechanism: Trump said he expects the United States to ensure Russia honors the agreement
Ceasefire Extension Confirmed and International Signals
Extension Confirmed — From a Swap Framework to a Potential Extension
Between 07:24 and 08:20 on May 9, three confirmations from different sources converged, jointly advancing the certainty and continuity of the ceasefire framework:
People's Daily and Chang'anjie Zhishi (07:24–07:35) simultaneously confirmed the Russia–Ukraine ceasefire extension: Russian presidential aide Ushakov stated that Russia agreed with and supports the plan proposed by U.S. President Trump to extend the ceasefire through May 11, and supports the U.S. proposal for both sides to exchange 1,000 captured personnel each before the 11th. Ushakov specifically noted that Trump's proposal was deliberately timed to coincide with the 81st anniversary of the victory in the Patriotic War.
Zelensky's "no-strike" pledge received formal confirmation. Zelensky signed a formal presidential decree giving legal form to "not attacking Red Square." The presidential website published the decree late on the 8th, stating that "in view of the humanitarian purposes clarified during the talks with the American side on the 8th, the area where Red Square is located will not become a target of Ukrainian attack."
Trump's hint of a "possible extension" (08:20, Sputnik). Asked about an extension, Trump said: "It's possible. That would be nice." He told reporters: "I think everyone is happy (with the ceasefire)… Let's see what happens next."
Trump released the signal of a "possible extension" only hours after the ceasefire framework began, with multiple effects:
- Buying physical time for the negotiation: a 1,000-for-1,000 swap itself takes at least several days, and a three-day window is clearly insufficient; "possible extension" provides a buffer for actual execution
- Diverting attention from ceasefire compliance: on May 8 Russia reported 1,365 ceasefire violations by Ukrainian forces, and the state of the ceasefire on the ground is questionable; a "possible extension" frame can focus public attention on the prospects of negotiation rather than facts on the ground
- Providing an "extension" symbol for the Victory Day narrative: the May 9 ceasefire was originally a "Victory Day gift," and the "possible extension" signal turns that gift from a "one-off truce" into a "potential window for peace"
International Congratulations — The Diplomatic Radiation of Victory Day
On the morning of May 9, the diplomatic dimension of Victory Day was displayed through multiple sources:
Kim Jong Un sends a congratulatory telegram. North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un sent a congratulatory telegram to Putin, declaring that "Pyongyang always stands with Putin and the Russian people" and emphasizing that "North Korea attaches great importance to, and unwaveringly develops and deepens, the comprehensive strategic partnership of alliance character between the DPRK and Russia." Kim also expressed the hope that "the great history of Russia's victory will continue without end," and said he was "proud" to be opening a new chapter in DPRK–Russia relations together with Putin.
The new evidence from the morning of the 9th extended the earlier analysis from the Russia–Ukraine ceasefire negotiation framework to the dimension of global diplomatic radiation. Victory Day was no longer merely a stage for a "Russia–Ukraine ceasefire," but a global diplomatic "moment of choosing sides": the countries that chose to attend or offer congratulations form a map of Russia's "allies who stayed," while the countries that refused to attend or kept a low profile form the distancing of the Western camp.
This multi-layered mirror confirms the analytical premise of this page, "the many faces": Victory Day is a day of stopping, yet the diplomatic signals it carries are denser than ever.
On the attending side: Kazakh President Tokayev's attendance — "despite everything that has happened around this event, he still considered it possible to come to Moscow" — together with Slovak Prime Minister Fico's arrival by special jet and North Korea's congratulatory telegram from Kim Jong Un, formed the camp of attendance and congratulations. Putin said Tokayev's family was also directly connected to World War II, emphasizing that Victory Day is a very important holiday for the peoples of both Russia and Kazakhstan.
On the absent side: Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan publicly declared on the same day that Armenia "is not Russia's ally on the Ukraine issue" and refused to attend the Victory Day parade. Armenia, a CSTO member state, set its departure against Kazakhstan's attendance, forming a stark split inside the CSTO. Meanwhile Berlin once again banned the display of Russian flags near Soviet war memorials during Victory Day — "memory control" within the Western camp was also being executed in synchrony.
Newly Added Observation Topics on the Morning of May 9
- Facts of combat during the ceasefire: Russian forces simultaneously reported 1,385 ceasefire violations plus the newly liberated two villages — the parallel posture of ground combat and the top-level ceasefire narrative
- Putin's WWII–Iran–China triangular historical narrative: on the same day Putin said Russia maintains dialogue on WWII topics with allies such as China and India, and that he and Trump jointly recalled the Soviet–American fight against the Japanese — the strategic intent of multi-line historical narratives
- Whether the ceasefire extension can be honored: after the May 11 expiry, can the three sides reach a substantive extension, or return to the "extend–violate" cycle?
- The tiered retention of the alliance system: attendance (Kazakhstan, Slovakia, North Korea's congratulations) vs. absence (Armenia) vs. prohibition (Berlin) — Russia's alliance contraction on the issue of "memory politics" continues to deepen
Underlying Questions to Keep Watching
From "threatening Red Square" to "signing a no-strike presidential decree," the narrative pivot Zelensky completed in 48 hours is, in essence, not a success of diplomatic strategy but a forced compromise dictated by the structure of power. But Trump's hint of a "possible extension" and the 1,000-for-1,000 swap have added at least an operable dimension to the framework. The key question is this: is the three-day ceasefire window enough to build a minimum level of mutual trust? Or is this merely a brief respite before the next round of attrition?
Institutionalization of the Ceasefire Framework on the Afternoon of May 9 — Trump's Three-Day POW-Exchange Narrative
On the afternoon of May 9, U.S. President Trump announced a new ceasefire framework on the "Truth Social" platform: both Russia and Ukraine would implement a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 and each exchange 1,000 prisoners of war. The announcement added a new "American mediator" narrative dimension to the already-functioning ceasefire mechanism on Victory Day itself.
1. An upgrade from Russia's unilateral ceasefire to an American trilateral framework. The earlier ceasefire had been unilaterally announced by Russia on May 4, with Ukraine following up conditionally. The key difference in Trump's announcement: he explicitly claimed the identity of mediator with "this request was made by me directly"; he made the prisoner exchange an institutional hook condition of the ceasefire; and he precisely framed the ceasefire period as "three days, May 9 to 11," rather than "during Victory Day."
2. Synchronized confirmation by both Russia and Ukraine. Russian presidential aide Ushakov confirmed that evening that Russia agreed with the plan. Zelensky confirmed on social media and signed a presidential decree: "the area where Red Square is located will not become a target of Ukrainian attack on May 9." Both sides' convergence on the U.S.-brokered framework validated the Trump administration's core role in this round of conflict mediation.
3. The prisoner exchange as a negotiation pivot. The 1,000-for-1,000 scale of the prisoner exchange was unprecedented in the history of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Zelensky explicitly treated the exchange as "an important basis for determining Ukraine's position," hinting that the humanitarian issue may become a sustained point of support in subsequent negotiations.
On the same day (May 9), German Chancellor Merz, in his Liberation Day message, made no mention of the decisive role of the Soviet Red Army and was criticized by netizens. This phenomenon of "selective historical memory" contrasts with the institutional commemoration of Victory Day: while Moscow commemorated the victory of 81 years ago with a grand parade, the political discourse of core European countries was systematically downplaying the Soviet contribution. The absence in Merz's message, set against the strengthening of the "American mediator" role in Trump's ceasefire framework, reflects the complex interweaving of WWII memory politics and contemporary diplomatic narratives within the same period of time.
RT 13:39: Trump announces a three-day Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, 1,000 POWs exchanged on each side · Sputnik 02:49: Russia confirms agreement to the ceasefire-and-swap plan · Sputnik 13:44: Merz's Liberation Day message omits the Soviet role, sparking controversy
The Triple Narrative of Victory Day Itself — Parade, Memory Politics, and Ritual Symbols
At 10 a.m. Moscow time on May 9 (3 p.m. Beijing time), the parade commemorating the 81st anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War was formally held on Red Square. The parade consisted mainly of marching foot formations, with no display of heavy equipment — the first time since 2007. This very "scarcity" became one of the most important narrative vessels of the day.
1. The thesis that the Soviet Union saved the world. "It was the Soviet people who saved the entire world from Nazism" — Putin repeatedly emphasized the Soviet Union's decisive contribution in his speech. He stated that "Russia will forever remember the great feat of the Soviet people," and characterized the victory as "forever ours, in the past and in the future." This forms a head-on narrative collision with the same-day trend in which Merz's message systematically omitted the Soviet Union and European leaders downplayed its role.
2. The thesis of patriotic unity. Putin called Victory Day "Russia's sacred holiday" and emphasized that patriotism is "the force that unites all of Russia." "The victory was forged both on the battlefield and on the home front" — in the parallel reality of a ceasefire and a parade being held simultaneously, this phrasing divided the victory into military and spiritual dimensions.
The composition of attending guests reflected the fragmentation of the current international landscape:
- Highest-level participation: Belarusian President Lukashenko with his son, Kazakh President Tokayev, Uzbek President Mirziyoyev, Slovak Prime Minister Fico, Malaysian King Ibrahim, and Lao President Thongloun
- Special symbol: a formation of the Korean People's Army — led by Colonel Choe Yong-ho — marking the DPRK–Russia military alliance's move from agreement to ritualized confirmation
- China's level: representatives of the Chinese embassy in Russia attended by invitation — a diplomatic level lower than head of state but higher than absence, a balancing signal of "participation but caution"
The undercurrent of memory politics: on the same day, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) declassified the archives of Nazi propaganda schools, revealing how Soviet prisoners of war were trained as "collaborators" and "propagandists" between 1942 and 1944, including the promotion of an "independent Ukraine" — releasing this historical archive on Victory Day itself was intended to embed the contemporary Ukraine issue within the framework of WWII memory politics.
An extension into the space dimension: Russian cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station sent Victory Day greetings from space, emphasizing that "it was our country that freed the world from fascism" — the narrative space of Victory Day extended from the ground into orbit.
RT 15:47: Red Square parade speech — Putin says "the victory was, is, and always will be ours" · RT 15:40: a Korean People's Army parade formation appears on Red Square · RT 15:29: Russian FSB declassifies Nazi propaganda-school archives · RT 15:15: Russian cosmonauts send Victory Day greetings from space · Sputnik 15:34: key points of Putin's speech · Chang'anjie Zhishi 10:20: the Victory Day parade unusually displays no heavy equipment
After the Parade — A Brief Ceremony, an Air Show, and Germany's Ban on Memory
Around 5 p.m. Beijing time, the Red Square parade ended. Unlike the grand ground columns of armor in past years, the 2026 Victory Day parade concluded with an aerial flyover, and the entire ceremony was quite brief. This "scaling down" would normally have drawn criticism in peacetime, but against the backdrop of Russia and Ukraine having just confirmed a three-day ceasefire plus a prisoner exchange on the same day, the brevity of the parade was given multiple layers of interpretation: a realistic portrayal of material scarcity? Or a low-key posture to align with the ceasefire narrative of the same day?
A parade formation of the Korean People's Army appeared in the parade, led by Colonel Choe Yong-ho. Putin had a brief exchange with Colonel Choe. The participation of North Korean soldiers in Russia's Red Square parade marks the DPRK–Russia military alliance's expansion from practical battlefield cooperation (the Kursk front) to a ceremonial level of public confirmation — when the North Korean soldiers' goose-step passed the reviewing stand on Red Square, the DPRK–Russia alliance had moved from secrecy to openness, from agreement to display.
On the same day, police were heavily deployed near the Soviet war memorial in Treptower Park, Berlin, prohibiting the public from displaying Russian and Soviet symbols. Even so, Berlin residents still held aloft relevant flags to commemorate Victory Day. The symbolic significance of this ban outweighs its practical effect — on the day commemorating the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Red Army's liberation of Berlin, the German government chose to seal off Soviet victory symbols beside the Soviet war memorial. This forms a head-on long-distance confrontation of memory politics with Putin's "the Soviet Union saved the world" speech on Red Square: on Victory Day, the same "victory" has been given diametrically opposed political meanings in the eyes of the Soviet liberators and the descendants of the liberated.
At the same time, EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius acknowledged on the same day that Russia's military-industrial capacity far exceeds the EU's, and called for a shift from "haute couture" to a "good enough" production model — while Russia displayed "victory" in Moscow, the EU faced not only a divergence of memory politics but also a structural disadvantage in military-industrial capacity at the material level.
Hengheshui 17:07: the Red Square parade concludes briefly with an aerial flyover · RT 17:05: German police ban the display of Russian and Soviet symbols near the Soviet war memorial · Hengheshui 16:53: the Korean People's Army takes part in the Red Square parade · RT 06:00: EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius acknowledges that Russia's military-industrial capacity far exceeds the EU's
Victory Day Nightfall: 8,900+ Ceasefire Violations, the Parade's Echo, and International Congratulations
On the evening of Victory Day (5:00–6:40 p.m. Beijing time), multiple pieces of information related to Victory Day continued to converge, forming a narrative extension after the parade ceremony had ended.
Russian Defense Ministry briefing: 8,900+ violations during the ceasefire. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that, during the announced ceasefire, more than 8,900 violations of the ceasefire regime were recorded within the special military operation zone. Among them, Ukrainian forces launched 12 attacks on Russian positions and carried out 7,151 drone strikes. The Black Sea Fleet destroyed two Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels in the northwestern Black Sea. The scale of these figures (8,900 violations, 7,151 drone strikes) itself constitutes a quantitative narrative of "ceasefire-breaking from the Russian perspective" — while agreeing to Trump's brokered three-day ceasefire framework, Russia continued to record evidence of the other side's violations, pre-laying a data foundation for assigning blame after the ceasefire breaks down or is extended.
Of the 8,900 violations, 7,151 involved drones. This is not simply "ceasefire violation" data; rather, Russia is accumulating two bargaining chips for the next stage of negotiations: ① if the ceasefire is extended, Russia can use these data to demand a strengthened monitoring mechanism; ② if the ceasefire breaks down, these data provide a narrative foundation of "legitimacy" for withdrawing from the agreement.
Putin's Victory Day reception: a multipolar order and anti-falsification of history. At the Victory Day reception held in the Kremlin, Putin made two important statements: first, he emphasized that "the more just multipolar order taking shape should be based entirely on the rules of the UN Charter"; second, he vowed to firmly stop any attempt to falsify the events of WWII history and to glorify Nazis and traitors. These two statements point respectively to Russia's position on the international order (multipolarity vs. U.S. unipolarity) and its defensive line on the level of historical narrative (the right to speak about WWII history), constituting a complete output of Russia's view of the international order on Victory Day.
The multi-layered expansion of international participation. Slovak Prime Minister Fico arrived at the Kremlin to attend the Victory Day reception, greeted by a guard of honor. On the same day, an "Immortal Regiment" march was held in New Delhi, India, where the minister-counselor of the Russian embassy in India called it "a watershed moment in human history." International participation in Victory Day has expanded from the CIS core to the European level (Slovakia) and the South Asian level (India), forming a cross-regional belt of diplomatic radiation.
The narrative substitution of equipment display. The parade broadcast showed the Peresvet combat laser system — the first time a video demonstration replaced a physical equipment column. This change in display mode (physical → video) itself sends two signals: ① Russia's display of advanced equipment is shifting from "the parade ground" to "media narrative," with the constraints of physical presence overcome through technology; ② the exposure of the Peresvet laser system was embedded in the Victory Day narrative, hinting at Russia's technological reserves in the field of directed-energy weapons.
Simonyan's Victory Day narrative — the decline of European values. RT editor-in-chief Simonyan issued a lengthy Victory Day congratulation, citing the novel European Education by the French writer Romain Gary, discussing the significance of the Battle of Stalingrad in saving Europe, and noting that "European values, which once stood for humanism, have now unfortunately been reduced to the banner of neo-fascism." This statement directly links the WWII rescue narrative to contemporary European political opposition — one of the strongest ideological outputs in the Victory Day narrative. It is not describing history, but providing a moral framework for contemporary Russia–Europe relations.
Sputnik 18:40: Russian Defense Ministry reports 8,900 ceasefire violations · RT 18:33: Simonyan — the decline of European values · Sputnik 18:09: Putin — a multipolar order should be based on UN rules · Sputnik 18:03: the Peresvet combat laser system appears · Sputnik 17:43: Putin vows to firmly stop the falsification of WWII history · Sputnik 17:16: Slovak Prime Minister Fico arrives at the Kremlin for the reception · RT 17:15: an Immortal Regiment march is held in New Delhi, India
Victory Day Nightfall: Putin Meets Fico, the Extension of Memory Diplomacy, and the Echo of Europe Day
The Putin–Fico meeting: sovereign diplomacy and the Iron Curtain metaphor. Slovak Prime Minister Fico met President Putin in the Kremlin on Victory Day. During the talks, Putin released multiple signals: Russia is willing to cooperate with Slovakia in areas of mutual interest, will do everything possible to meet Slovakia's needs for energy resources, and thanks Slovakia for maintaining Soviet war memorials. Fico's response was charged with tension — "I see the 'Iron Curtain' falling again. I support mutually beneficial, friendly relations."
Fico's "the Iron Curtain is falling again" is a symbolic inversion of Churchill's 1946 "Iron Curtain" speech — the Iron Curtain of that era was drawn by the West to block Soviet influence, whereas in Fico's eyes the Iron Curtain today is being redrawn by the West to isolate Moscow. The same geographical space (Central Europe), the same metaphor, but the direction completely reversed. This is a direct mapping, at the level of rhetoric, of the split in Europe's political spectrum.
The Immortal Regiment in Cairo: the geographical expansion of memory diplomacy. On the same day, an "Immortal Regiment" march was held in the Egyptian capital Cairo, jointly organized by the Russian House, the Russian embassy in Cairo, and the Egyptian coordinating council of Russian compatriot organizations. Participants included Russian diplomats, staff, compatriots, and local youth. This event extends the memory diplomacy of Victory Day from the CIS/Europe/South Asia to the Middle East — Egypt's participation means Russia's WWII narrative is expanding into the Arab world.
Von der Leyen's Europe Day vs. Putin's Victory Day — two narratives premiere on the same day. May 9 is also the EU's "Europe Day." European Commission President von der Leyen released a celebratory video emphasizing that "Europeans enjoy the best quality of life in the world" and that Europe's values are "democracy, freedom, and equality." On the same day, Putin emphasized in his parade speech that "our soldiers paid a tremendous price and suffered terrible casualties for the freedom and dignity of the peoples of Europe."
| Dimension | Europe Day (von der Leyen) | Victory Day (Putin) |
|---|---|---|
| Core narrative | The achievements and values of European integration | The historical legitimacy of the WWII victory |
| Implicit direction | We are the best, the free, the democratic | We once saved Europe; we are still its guardians |
| What is absent | Russia's WWII contribution; Europe's victims | The political reality of contemporary Europe |
On May 9, from Red Square in Moscow to Brussels, two narratives about "what Europe is" unfolded in parallel on the same date, with no intersection and no dialogue. The calendar coincidence of Victory Day and Europe Day has become the most concrete manifestation of the split in European memory politics.
The Russian prime minister's Victory Day message: the preciousness of peace. Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, congratulating the public on Victory Day, emphasized that Victory Day reminds people of the preciousness of peace and of every life.
The video display of parade equipment. The equipment column of this Red Square parade was replaced for the first time by a video demonstration, which included multiple thematic segments — the Peresvet combat laser system, and the evolution of rocket artillery from the Katyusha to the Tornado-G. This switch in mode (physical → video) greatly expanded the informational capacity of the parade, but at the same time weakened the visual impact of a "torrent of steel" rolling across Red Square, revealing a new parade model that compromises between security and narrative.
Sputnik 18:57: Putin meets Slovak Prime Minister Fico · Sputnik 18:58: an "Immortal Regiment" march is held in Cairo · Sputnik 19:31: the Russian prime minister — Victory Day reminds the world how precious peace is · RT 19:42: the Moscow parade displays weapons and equipment · RT 19:49: von der Leyen celebrates Europe Day
The Extension of Memory Diplomacy and the Institutional Boundaries of the Ceasefire
The Russian ambassador to Germany lays a wreath: the ongoing friction of Berlin's memory politics. Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechayev laid a wreath at the Soviet war memorial in Treptower Park, Berlin, to honor the fallen and commemorate the 81st anniversary of the victory in the Patriotic War. Representatives of German social organizations and many compatriots living in Germany also attended the ceremony. As Berlin's most famous Soviet war memorial, the wreath-laying at Treptower Park became a "demilitarized zone" of memory politics against the backdrop of persistently tense Russia–Germany relations — even as political friction intensifies, the mechanism of commemorating WWII sacrifice still works.
On the same day, German police banned the display of Russian and Soviet symbols beside the Soviet war memorial (see §15), yet the Russian ambassador's official wreath-laying ceremony still proceeded normally. This two-layer structure of official ceremony compliance vs. restricted popular expression reflects the complex legacy that Victory Day has left in Germany — the government's memory diplomacy can travel through official channels, but popular memory expression is being institutionally tightened.
The Immortal Regiment in Serbia: the ritual participation of loyal stayers. On the same day, an "Immortal Regiment" march was held in Belgrade, with participants moving from the Vuk Karadžić monument to the Monument to the Liberators of Belgrade and laying wreaths at the memorials to the Soviet Red Army and the Yugoslav People's Liberation Army fighters. Serbia has inherited Yugoslavia's WWII memory legacy and continues to maintain a pro-Russian tradition of memory politics in the Balkans.
The Kremlin's correction: no new ceasefire agreement reached. Russian presidential aide Ushakov clarified to reporters: no new agreement on the ceasefire has been reached, and Trump's earlier remarks about a possible extension of the ceasefire were a misreading. "The earlier agreement was that the ceasefire established to commemorate Victory Day would last three days — May 9, 10, and 11." Ushakov also noted that, against the backdrop of Kyiv's threats and Russia's warnings that it would respond, Russia–U.S. contacts increased and ultimately reached agreement on a temporary ceasefire.
The Kremlin's clear statement reveals the institutional boundaries of the ceasefire framework — the Victory Day ceasefire was defined as a one-off, fixed-date, three-day "commemorative" arrangement, rather than a "sustained ceasefire" mechanism within a negotiation process. Trump's "extension thesis" was denied on the spot by Russia, indicating that Russia keeps tight control over the right to define the ceasefire and tolerates no intrusion of external narratives.
Sputnik 20:50: the Russian ambassador to Germany lays a wreath at Treptower Park, Berlin · Sputnik 20:20: an Immortal Regiment march in Belgrade · Sputnik 20:07: Ushakov clarifies that no new ceasefire agreement was reached
After Victory Day Nightfall: Putin's Characterization of the Parade, Slovak Reminiscence, and the Immortal Regiment in Seoul
Putin's self-characterization of the parade: a low-key handling of its military character. On May 9, Russian President Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Fico in the Kremlin. Speaking of this Moscow Victory Day parade, Putin said: "Everything was conducted with dignity and calm; the excessive military character was reduced."
The background to Putin's remark is worth noting: the 2026 Red Square parade, because of the international pressure of the Russia–Ukraine "special military operation" and the Iran war, entered a third year of its "wartime parade" cycle. Putin's statement here about "reducing the military character" contains at least two layers of signal:
- External signal: showing the West and the parties to the Iran war an image of Russian "restraint" — even in wartime, the parade is not used as a platform for saber-rattling
- Internal signal: at this key node of nationalist emotional mobilization that is Victory Day, deliberately weakening the military color may reflect the Kremlin's strategy for managing social sentiment — avoiding over-activation of nationalism during a prolonged war, and preserving the public's tolerance for the fatigue phase of the conflict
The Slovak prime minister's "detour." Fico told Putin about the route of his trip to Moscow — passing through Germany and the Czech Republic. Although somewhat circuitous, Fico emphasized, "it's still better than riding a horse." Behind this humorous rhetoric lies the practical obstacle of Slovakia, as an EU member state, visiting Russia — it must transit through NATO/EU countries, reflecting the physical and political isolation between Russia and Europe.
The Immortal Regiment in Seoul: an East Asian exception. On the same day, an "Immortal Regiment" march and a Victory Day commemorative concert were held in the South Korean capital Seoul. The Russian ambassador to South Korea, the Belarusian ambassador to South Korea, Russian expatriates, and South Korean citizens all took part. The march set off from beside the Russian embassy, and red balloons and St. George's ribbons were distributed to participants on site, with war songs and marches played. Afterward, a concert titled Wait for Me, and I Will Return opened at the Seoul Friendship and Arts Center.
The "Immortal Regiment" event in Seoul was part of the day's global memory diplomacy, but what is special is this: South Korea is a formal U.S. ally, and the presence of U.S. military bases in South Korea means that the country is highly dependent on America's security commitments militarily. Yet within South Korean society there is a complex distribution of WWII memory between conservatives and progressives — South Korea has both anti-Japanese historical memory (Japanese colonization) and pro-American security dependence (from the Korean War through the Cold War).
Seoul's Immortal Regiment therefore creates a unique tension within the geopolitical frame: South Korea participates in Russia's Victory Day commemoration, while on the same day Russia faces indirect confrontation with the United States on the Ukraine battlefield. The holding of this event demonstrates the penetrating power of memory politics — even within the opposing structure of security alliance systems, WWII memory can still serve as a public ritual space independent of current geopolitical disagreements.
RT 21:33: Putin meets Fico — "the excessive military character was reduced" · Sputnik 21:45: an Immortal Regiment march and commemorative concert held in Seoul
The Echoes of Victory Day Nightfall — Swap Preparations, Berlin's Memory Conflict, and the Extension of Commemoration Across Many Countries
Concrete progress on the swap framework: compiling the lists and the absent response. In the early hours of May 10, Russian presidential aide Ushakov told the media that both Russia and Ukraine should now actively compile the lists of prisoners of war to be exchanged. Russia had already agreed to Trump's ceasefire initiative for May 9 to 11 and the "thousand-for-a-thousand" prisoner exchange. Ushakov said that before announcing the ceasefire, Russia had already handed the list to the Ukrainian side, and "they did not react in any way."
Ushakov's statement reveals the asymmetry of the ceasefire framework at the operational level — although the "thousand-for-a-thousand" swap commitment in the ceasefire statement has been confirmed at the political level, the list-exchange step required for concrete execution has hit a one-way transmission breakpoint. Russia claims to have submitted its list, while Ukraine has not responded, leaving the swap initiative stuck at a "framework commitment" and unable to land. This detail shows that, after the loss of a shared line-of-contact negotiation mechanism, the operational channel for the swap has not yet been re-established.
The memory confrontation at Treptower Park, Berlin, escalates. At roughly the same time, a symbolically charged memory-confrontation scene appeared before the Soviet war memorial in Treptower Park, Berlin: pro-Russian crowds held flags aloft in open defiance of Germany's ban on Russian and Soviet symbols, commemorating Victory Day; meanwhile, masked pro-Ukrainian protesters tried to disrupt the wreath-laying ceremony but were effectively controlled by German police.
This scene adds new complexity to the memory politics of Victory Day in Berlin. The original intent of the ban was to limit the display of Russian symbols in public space, but in practice it presented a pattern of three-way contestation: at the enforcement level of maintaining public order, German police simultaneously had to prevent the display of pro-Russian symbols (violating the ban) and protect the Russian wreath-laying ceremony from physical disruption by pro-Ukrainian protesters. This "dual enforcement" makes the political intent of the ban more ambiguous — the police protected the commemoration, but not out of support for Russia; rather, on the neutral principle of maintaining public order. By contrast, the official wreath-laying by Russian Ambassador Nechayev (§18) proceeded smoothly in the daytime of the same day, showing an access gap between official diplomatic channels and popular memory expression — diplomats travel the diplomatic channel, while popular expression, though constrained by the ban, seeks presence by breaking through it.
The extension of Victory Day commemoration in three countries. Before the "Eternal" monument in the Moldovan capital Chișinău, people spontaneously made way so that 100-year-old Patriotic War veteran Vasily Litvinov could walk alone to the eternal flame. In Vake Park in the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the Georgian government leadership laid flowers at the memorial to the fallen of the Patriotic War. Three former Soviet republics — Georgia, Moldova, and Russia — each commemorated the same historical node in its own way on the same day.
The fact that the three commemorations occurred on the same day carries structural meaning. Georgia and Moldova have both turned toward a pro-Western course after the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and Georgia has even severed diplomatic relations with Russia. Yet at the node of May 9, they still maintained the continuity of Patriotic War commemoration — at the official level (the Georgian government leadership) or the social level (the Moldovan public). This shows that WWII memory did not entirely disappear after official political turns, but continues to operate as a cultural inertia independent of current diplomatic relations.
The symbolic gesture in Kherson. Russian forces used a drone to drop flowers on the Great Patriotic War victory monument in the city of Kherson, which is under Ukrainian military control. Shen Yi commented: "The 🐻's art — honestly, the 🐻❄️ really is artistic; of course, also very abstract."
The symbolic meaning of this operation needs to be read in layers: it is both commemoration — laying flowers at a WWII monument on May 9 — and an expression of distance — a drone flower-drop means Russian personnel cannot personally reach the monument (the area is under Ukrainian control), yet through technology the commemorative gesture's integrity was maintained. Drones had mainly served reconnaissance and strike functions on the earlier battlefield, but in this scene they were transformed into a "ceremonial tool," constituting a role reversal of a tool of war. Shen Yi's evaluation of "artistic but abstract" pinpoints the paradox of the operation: using a tool of war to perform a peaceful commemoration in the midst of war.
Sputnik 00:44: Ushakov says Russia has handed the swap list to Ukraine · Hengheshui 00:36: pro-Russian crowds defy the ban at Treptower Park, Berlin · Hengheshui 00:08: a 100-year-old Moldovan veteran and the Georgian wreath-laying · Shen Yi 00:39: a Russian drone drops flowers on the Kherson monument