More honest than diplomatic language or trade statistics is the web of finance — a network in which each side is embedded in the other. The claim circulating online that "the US and China are decoupling, so US Treasuries will become worthless paper" reflects a basic ignorance of how financial markets actually work. Capital is far more honest than politics: invest when it should invest, curse when it should curse.
The Truth Behind Treasury Selling Is More Complicated Than You Think
Countless self-media accounts reduce China's sales of US Treasuries to a simple story — "China and America had a fight, so China is dumping Treasuries." As Wushi Caijing (Wizard Finance), a popular Chinese financial commentary channel, points out, this is pure layman's spectacle-watching.
The timeline is what matters: China's deliberate, planned reduction of its Treasury holdings began between 2011 and 2013 — back when Beijing and Washington were still arm in arm, when a trade war was not even a shadow on the horizon. The selling was driven by a calculus of China's own interests; the trade war merely accelerated a process that was already underway.
China still holds roughly US$683.5 billion. More than a decade of selling — accelerated after US–China relations soured — and the holdings still stand near US$700 billion. And the wealth swapped out of Treasuries has largely continued to exist in other dollar-denominated forms: agency debt, offshore custody arrangements, and other dollar assets. As one foreign institution's research report demonstrated, China shows a decline only in the narrow category of US Treasury securities, but it has not actually reduced its dollar exposure.
US Treasuries are a medium of circulation in the global capital market — a financial instrument. They should not be treated as a signal for venting emotions.
The Full Data Picture of Two-Way Capital Flows
Chinese Investment in the United States
- 2003–2010: Very low — China had only just grown rich, and the impulse to go overseas was still weak.
- 2010–2016: Rapid growth, as Chinese companies turned their gaze to the world.
- 2016 (the peak): Haier, HNA, and Wanda expanded aggressively.
- 2018–pandemic: A phased pullback — "this time we really thought about breaking up."
- Post-pandemic: Climbing back up again.
Mainland Chinese capital's holdings of US equities stand at roughly US$340 billion (as of mid-2025), rising steadily since 2016. The industry went through a massive cleanup — yet still, capital "climbed over mountains and crossed ridges to keep investing."
American Investment in China
The "withdrawal from China" thesis so loudly promoted in public discourse gets slapped in the face by the data. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), American investment in China has been on a sustained climb since 2004 — interrupted only briefly by the 2008 subprime crisis. After decoupling became the rallying cry in 2018, the growth rate slowed, but the stock kept growing.
Remember our own investment in the US? We pulled back a little — we really thought about breaking up. But America's capitalists never once sat still through the pandemic years. Investment in China is their honest body.
After the DeepSeek moment, global capital saw China's real capabilities for itself and began pouring back into Chinese capital markets — positioning most frenziedly in Hong Kong stocks. The funny part: "the tech sector had been rock-hard for months, then went soft again after they arrived. I don't care what international financial sharks you are — come to our market and you'll get trapped too."
The Truth: More Coming In Than Going Out
Cases of capital withdrawing certainly exist, and there are plenty of them — which is precisely why they make such lavishly promoted news. But from a whole-picture perspective: new money may be flowing in more slowly, but old money is exiting even more slowly and less efficiently. Far more is still coming in than going out, and the investment stock is still growing.
Why? Capitalists may be detestable, but they are also the purest of creatures. They have vast interests in China — pull one thread and the whole fabric moves — and in China, they genuinely make money. Shouting slogans along with Trump costs nothing.
In the future, "Earth Online" will have only two players — so it is perfectly normal for capital to hedge its bets on both. Besides betting on China and America, what else is there on the whole human board to bet on?
"Unless…" — The One Condition for a Real US–China Alliance
For all the lingering ties in economics, trade, and finance, the United States will ultimately never become a true ally. Technological containment is already long-term national policy, and bipartisan toughness on China has ossified. But if the two countries were somehow destined to become open allies:
Then we would have to look north. If an even vaster empire were to appear — the Warsaw Pact returns in the morning, and by the afternoon China and America are making out — "Joint US–China Military Exercises 2026" launches, and HarmonyOS runs on Apple's A19 Pro chip.
Apart from that scenario — well, or the Trisolarians invade.